South Korea, Japan leaders lack political capital to fix wartime row
Former Prime Minister Taro Aso of Japan lifts hopes of settling labor issue
TOKYO -- South Korea's "Dynamic Korea" slogan, part of its national branding strategy, is gaining relevance in terms of security as President Yoon Suk-yeol spearheads a bold but politically risky initiative to reshape foreign policy.
Yoon's determination to push through a policy shift can be gleaned from a recent interview with Reuters. When asked about Japan's plan to increase its defense spending, Yoon said, "I believe the Japanese government cannot be asleep at the wheel with the North Korean missile flights over their territory."
This comment reflects Yoon's willingness to take risks toward mending deeply strained ties with Japan.
It is not easy for a South Korean president to show his understanding of Japan's need for stronger defense capabilities. The nation's liberal opposition often finds resonance with the public when criticizing joint military exercises against North Korea with the U.S. and Japan as "pro-Japan."
Yoon is also speaking up on the Taiwan issue, expressing his strong opposition to "any attempt to change the status quo unilaterally." There would have been nothing notable about this statement had it come from the leader of a Western democracy or Japan. Uttered by the president of a country with such deep and strong historical and economic ties to China, however, it should make the world sit up and take notice.
In another sign of a significant shift in diplomatic posture, South Korean navy officers saluted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during the International Fleet Review, hosted in November by Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force. The Northeast Asian neighbors remain at odds over an incident in which a South Korean warship in 2018 trained fire-control radar on a Japanese patrol plane, but Seoul appears committed to steering its diplomacy away from the agenda set by Yoon's predecessor, Moon Jae-in.
Yoon also seems eager to resolve the issue of compensation for former Korean wartime laborers, but the political situation at home has become a major obstacle. The issue could escalate into a full-fledged diplomatic crisis if the local assets of Japanese companies are forcefully liquidated to compensate South Koreans drafted to work at their plants during Japan's colonial rule.
Under one proposal to settle this dispute put forth by South Korean experts and some plaintiffs, Japanese and South Korean companies, including those that benefited from a 1965 treaty normalizing diplomatic ties, would make voluntary contributions to a South Korean foundation that would assume the liability of the Japanese companies accused of using forced labor.
The foundation, under the supervision of South Korea's Ministry of Security and Public Administration, would be based on a civil contract that would not require the consent of the plaintiffs. Neither would the step require new legislation, since an existing foundation would be used.
The catch is that the Japanese companies that used forced labor would be expected to make their own contributions and offer an apology. This is a condition Tokyo has so far rejected.
The Japanese businesses, labeled by South Korea's progressive media as "war criminals," wish to settle the issue. But it is hard for them to do so with their own government insisting the issue was settled by the 1965 agreement. They also need to consider possible shareholder reactions to any payments made in relation to the case.
An executive at one of the Japanese companies says it is impossible to take any action unless "the Japanese government or Keidanren (the Japan Business Federation, the nation's top business lobby) take the initiative."
Compounding the situation is the two governments' poor public support. The Yoon administration has remained unpopular since its early days, with Yoon's approval ratings in Gallup Korea polls languishing around 30% over the past month. Voters cite "a shortage of experience and qualities" and his "dogmatic and unilateral" attitude as reasons for not supporting his administration.
Conservative doyens close to the Yoon administration say the president himself is eager to improve ties with Japan. But the political environment in South Korea is making it harder for him to act boldly to break the impasse. Yoon's close aides are advising against any move that could provoke negative public reactions like those triggered by a bilateral comfort women agreement in 2015.
In Japan, Kishida is also struggling to lift his cabinet's low ratings, which since a series of scandals and resignations have fallen below 40%. Kishida is aware of how his two immediate predecessors, Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe, stepped down when their approval ratings failed to move above 40%.
Tokyo and Seoul had hoped to settle the wartime labor issue and pave the way for Yoon to visit Japan by the end of the year. But it's a sticky issue, and a resolution will require the kind of painful decision-making that can only take place with strong public support.
"It is difficult for the leaders of the two countries to reach an agreement when their approval ratings are below 40%," said Jin Chang-soo, director of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Sejong Institute. "They need to raise the ratings above 50% to take a diplomatic initiative in resolving difficult issues."
There is now little hope of Yoon visiting Tokyo in the next few weeks.
The process of selling the assets of the Japanese companies to pay compensation has been put on hold for now, as the South Korean government has asked the Supreme Court to delay a ruling on the matter, citing ongoing diplomatic efforts.
A conservative political heavyweight in South Korea is optimistic there will be no move to liquidate the assets, at least not for the time being. But it is far from clear how things will pan out if Yoon's public support remains weak. In the past, South Korea's judiciary has shown a tendency to be influenced by public sentiment, with some of its disruptive and unexpected rulings delivering serious blows to the bilateral relationship.
Yoon's and Kishida's political calendars show the leaders have little time left to tackle the issue.
South Korea will hold a quadrennial general election in April 2024, and the ruling and opposition parties will likely rush into campaign mode in the second half of next year. If the conservative ruling party fails to secure a majority in the legislature, Yoon's administration will be robbed of the political momentum needed to deal with difficult issues. Such a result would also make Yoon something of a lame duck with three years left until the end of his term.
In Japan, unified local elections will be held in April, and the country will host a Group of Seven summit in May in Hiroshima, Kishida's constituency. South Korea hopes Yoon will be invited to the summit. Given the schedule, many observers and South Korean officials say the wartime labor dispute must be settled by February, or, at the latest, by the end of June.
The South Korean assets of Japanese companies, meanwhile, hang in the balance. If they are sold for cash, the Japanese government might have no choice but to take retaliatory action. That would throw the bilateral relationship into a downward spiral again. It would also undermine the cooperation among Japan, South Korea and the U.S. that is crucial in meeting threats from China and North Korea.
Against this backdrop, Taro Aso, a former prime minister and the vice president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, about a month ago visited South Korea and held lengthy talks with Yoon.
Aso's visit could go on to have huge political and diplomatic significance. It could allow the LDP bigwig to maneuver and become an effective "anchor," keeping the Tokyo-Seoul relationship from being dictated by LDP hard-liners, a senior Japanese government official said. Aso's reputation as a politician ready to play hardball with South Korea gives him unique political clout within the ruling party.
Any political decision Kishida makes to resolve the issue with South Korea could provoke a backlash from party hard-liners and conservative voters. Aso could help placate them, smoothing the way for such a decision to take effect. This means Aso would have to play the role the late Shinzo Abe once performed by taking a pragmatic stance toward China and South Korea.
Yoon seems to be aware of these political dynamics. Aso visited South Korea just four days after the deadly Halloween crowd crush and on the day North Korea fired over 20 missiles, with one falling near South Korea's territorial waters. His meeting with Yoon lasted much longer than scheduled.
Expectations are running high that Aso's visit to Seoul will pay dividends in the months to come.